S03E24 - That Would Be a Cute Kitten, but.....

Dec 03 2009

S03E24 - That Would Be a Cute Kitten, but.....

Aside from my short, some what funny, and somewhat tragic Thanksgiving Day story, we have some useful information for you. We asked you to vote and the votes are in. Today we talk Monsterpocalypse.

First we check in with what has been happening with the game over the past year and it steps into the ring to face off with World of Warcraft Miniatures for Collectible Miniature Game Domination.


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Paul's Email

Jason,

Just dropping you a line as requested in your last show. Great show, as ever by the way. I'm a regular listener/watcher of your podcast and look forward to it popping up on iTunes. I really appreciate the eclectic mix of games you do, and your unique approach - no one else has done a test to destruction of figure cases!! Great stuff.

Anyhow, to pick up your theme of the "state of the hobby", I have a few points to chuck into the debate that may (or may not) interest you.

Firstly, starting with GW (as the largest wargaming company in the world, one that for many people "is" the hobby, then starting with them makes sense.)

Financially they are doing "OK". Only OK, not great. For the period 2004-08 they were doing lousey and were on a hiding to extinction financially. Last year they steadied the ship, but are still a long way from extinction and really need to improve their business if they are to return back to being a growing company. The attached graph of turnover and profit for the last few years should tell you everything you need to know on that score. If it had not been for the fall in value of the £GB vs the US$ and the Euro then GW would not have seen the increase in turnover they did (GW's accounts are denominated in £GB and so when the £GB crashed last year, sales in the US and the Eurozone were suddenly therefore worth something like 20% more than they had been), and for the third year running turnover and profits would have been static, bumbling along at the same levels they achieved in 2001. They had a few good years due to the LotR licence, but that all finished in 2004, and they've been struggling ever since to rescue the company - they haven't paid their shareholders a dividend 4 years, for instance.

So my prediction is that we will continue to see GW milk their remaining loyal customers for every penny they can. Which means ever higher selling prices, and the constant drive for bigger armies.

Will this succeed or will they fail? Who knows?! I really think they are pricing themselves out of the market now though, so my money is on "fail". Look at the price of the goldswords, the Stank, the new Stormvermin. Can you really see people being willing to pay those prices in the quantities GW need them to? In a recession?

Nowadays there is just so much competition for them - even here in the UK where indie stores are pretty thin on the ground thanks to GW's saturation of the retail market. Look at the likes of Mantic Games (www.manticgames.com ) you can build an entire WFB-ready elf army, out of lovely plastic models for $100. A fraction of GW's price. And Warlord Games (http://www.warlordgames.co.uk/) and Perry Miniatures (www.perry-miniatures.com ) bringing plastic to historical gaming at a fraction of GW's cost to the customer. Is it a coincidence that all 3 games are run by ex-GW staff? I think not! Historical gaming is booming, non-GW fantasy/sci-fi is booming. GW is struggling and stuck in the past.

So, I take your guest's point, that in order to succeed it is necessary for non-GW companies to follow GW's model. But these companies, run by ex-GW staff (some of them very senior - John Stallard, Paul Sawyer, the Perry twins, Ronnie Renton - all "let go" by GW in recent years during the lean times) have concluded that the answer is not charging customers through the nose for the same old crap, but instead offering good value for money and innovation.

And if they go to the wall? So what, another company will be along in a minute. This is 2009 and with the internet start-up costs are low and store frontage is cheap. Look at Wyrd Miniatures/Malifaux and Spartan Games/Uncharted Seas. Companies that have come from nowhere and established themselves as players in the industry overnight. All of them are taking money right out of GW's pocket. GW's dominance is threatened and can only reduce. Whether this is catastrophic for them or whether they survive in a smaller form time will tell!

Privateer Press? That I know less about. Over in the UK the exchange rate has pretty much killed off US imports at any scale, and I see interest in PP tumbling. Combine that with the whole "lets wait and see what MkII is like" thing going on, and PP is pretty much dead in the water over here. Of course in the US things will be very different. I do think they have their challenges though, and the success of otherwise of MkII will likely make or break them. Of course being a private company they don't have shareholders to worry about, so can suffer a few lean years without the level of pressure GW is facing from their shareholders right now. $35 for a plastic warjack is asking a lot of their fans though. We'll see.

I agree with you about Ex Illis. Seems like a bizarre and unworkable business model. I can't see anyone other than some serious geeks getting into it. It'll be a fad which fades.

Arcane Legions? Tricky one. If it is to succeed it needs to become the new Heroclix because of the economies of scale. Will it get that level of take up? I'm not sure. While people will likely give it a go, I see the need for a large table and terrain really being an obstacle for those who like the "clix"/(un-)pre-painted approach to wargaming. In the UK that looks problematical as most clix players were kids playing on school desks. They won't buy arcane legions. In the US though with its network of indie stores, things may be different.

All good stuff.

And for my vote for your next show, I'd love to hear your opinion of Grind. It's a game that on the face of it doesn't interest me (I don't get excited about "sports" games), but PP will have no doubt put a lot of effort into the game as they don't do things by halves, so I'm keen to see what they've done!

Cheers

Paul.

Episode Hosts: Jason Rutherford, Ryan Wilke and Kyle Menzies